Leading Indicators Point to a Likely Increase in Poverty in DC in 2010

The US Census Bureau released new data that paint a somber picture for the nation’s economic recovery, with news that  the share of U.S. residents  in poverty climbed to its highest level in 17 years and the deep poverty rate  ‘ the share of people living below half of the poverty line ‘ reached record levels.    

The data paint a less clear picture for what happened to poverty here in the District because of limitations with the data ‘ mainly a small sample size for states.  More reliable and detailed information for states, and DC, will be made available on September 22. 

Nevertheless, a look at leading indicators of poverty ‘  food stamp participation and employment changes ‘  provide clues that point to a likely increase in poverty in DC in 2010. 

  • Participation in the food stamp program rose by 15 percent in 2010 with an average monthly participation of 103,300 residents in 2009, up to 118,500 residents in 2010.  The food stamp program is a good indicator for poverty because it is one of the broadest safety net programs, open to families with incomes below 130 percent of poverty. 
  • Employment levels also fell in the District from 2009 to 2010.  The percent of DC adults employed fell from 61.7 percent in 2009 to 60.6 percent in 2010, a statistically significant decrease.  It’s no surprise that falling employment levels are also tied to changes in the poverty rate.    

The data released by the Census Bureau also provided a preliminary look at health insurance coverage trends over the last few years and poverty trends over the last decade in the District. 

  • Over 19,000 DC residents joined the ranks of the uninsured during 2009-2010.  The percent of non-elderly DC residents without health insurance coverage rose from 10.3 percent from 2008-2009 to 13.7 percent from 2009-2010.  Not surprisingly, this occurred because many residents lost employer-sponsored coverage, with 22,400 losing their employer-sponsored coverage in 2009-2010. 
  • DC’s Medicaid program helped to cover some of the uninsured and now covers more than one out of every two children in the District.  Close to one out of every four non-elderly DC residents, or 103,900, were enrolled in Medicaid in 2009-2010, up from 22 percent in 2007-2008.  Medicaid covered 52 percent of DC kids in 2009-2010, up from 47 percent in 2007-2008. 
  •  Poverty is back on the rise in DC.  After rising sharply in the mid-2000’s, then falling, poverty is starting to rise again in the District ‘ and is now only modestly lower than the decade-high peak reach in 2005-2006. 

You can read DCFPI’s complete analysis of the data here.  And check back with us on September 22nd for an analysis on the more authoritative and detailed data that will allow us to look more clearly at what happened to poverty and income levels in DC, including changes in poverty and income by race and ethnicity, educational attainment, geographic area, and age.